A couple weeks after a disappointing loss to Illinois, MU came through with a big road win against a solid Georgia basketball team. This is a win that should look good to the NCAA selection committee when they make their selections in a couple months. The conference schedule starts next Saturday with Mizzou traveling to Nebraks before hosting Colorado the following week. Will this be the year Mizzou finally ends its NCAA tourney drought? How many wins does Mizzou need to get in the tournament? How will they do in conference play?
I think Mizzou should be able to go 9-7 in conference play, but at a minimum 8-8. Assuming 8-8 and one win in the Big 12 Tournament, Mizzou would finish the season at 22-11. That ought to be enough to get in the tournament. Thoughts?
2 comments:
I think we have even more room for error than you have provided. First, the Georgia game is nice, but not nearly as big as everyone is making it sound (including the Mizzou athletic department). On the other hand it is important to talk up non-conference wins that are against bigger conference schools (Pac-10 and SEC). After tonight (Coppin State) the Tigers will be 13-2. It is hard to snub a 20 win ball club. If we can go 7-9 in conference then we have a good shot. The NCAA committee is a little weary of selecting more than 6 teams from any particular conference. The Big 12 normally will have 6 teams go to the big dance. In a really down year only 4 teams could go. In a really good year as many as 8 teams could go. A lot of that depends on conference winners from smaller conferences. For instance, a team like Butler, in the Horizon league, would make the tourney as an at-large regardless of winning the conference championship game. So if Butler wins the conference championship game then only Butler will represent the Horizon league and one additional spot for an at-large team is open (possibly Big 12 team). However, if Butler loses the conference championship game, then another team creeps in and Butler takes the at-large spot, then there will be 2 Horizon league teams and one less at-large position. Obviously, a lot has to play out, but I think a 20 win Missouri team will get in.
A 20 win team is on the bubble. A 22 win team is in no questions asked.
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